Will the AI investment boom eventually lead to an oversupply of memory chips? SK Hynix, the global leader in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), sees no signs of this happening yet. CEO Kwak Noh-Jung stated that demand from AI customers remains robust and that the global memory shortage could persist through the end of 2030. Even if the next market downturn arrives, a repeat of the sudden, drastic freeze in demand seen in the past is unlikely.
Kwak believes the key lies in how AI is rewriting the rules of the memory industry. In the past, memory chips were highly standardized commodities; manufacturers would race to expand capacity during boom times, causing the market to swing rapidly from shortage to oversupply. In the AI era, however, HBM is no longer a mere standardized commodity but a product that must be customized to meet specific customer needs. Suppliers now collaborate more closely with end customers, making it easier to gauge future demand. Consequently, he anticipates that even when the market cycle turns, demand will decline only gradually—or perhaps remain on a high plateau—rather than plummeting as it did in previous cycles.